Twenty Thousand Seasons

What it does

Futures are priced months before they settle, on thin information and thick opinion. That is the whole opportunity — and it is the only thing this model is pointed at.

01 / SIMULATE

Twenty thousand seasons

Every schedule is played out end to end, thousands of times over, so the output is a distribution of outcomes rather than a single guess.

02 / PRICE

A number, not a narrative

Each simulated distribution becomes a fair price. That price is compared against what the market is actually offering, at the moment it is offered.

03 / ACT

Futures only, on purpose

Win totals, divisions, conferences, championships and awards. No sides, no totals, no parlays. One market type, done properly.

Season one is a proof, not a pitch.

Anyone can claim an edge in September. So the 2026 season is being published in the open, in advance, and nothing is for sale while it happens. Judge it at the end and decide then.

→Every position is posted before it can settle — timestamped, with the number and the price that was actually available.
→The losers get posted too. A record that only shows winners is not a record. This one shows everything or it shows nothing.
→Closing line is tracked alongside every entry — the number when it was taken against the number at the close.
→The assumptions are stated up front — stake sizing, pricing convention, and what is and is not counted — and they do not change mid-season.
→Free for the whole of 2026. No subscription, no locked picks, nothing behind a wall while the record is still being built.

What it does